The Crystal Ball

From Full Sterne Ahead

April, 2002
March, 2002
February, 2002
December, 2001
November, 2001
October, 2001
September, 2001
August, 2001
June, 2001
May, 2001
March, 2001
February, 2001
November, 2000
September, 2000
August, 2000
June, 2000
May, 2000
April, 2000
December, 1999
November, 1999
October, 1999
June, 1999
May, 1999
March, 1999
January, 1999
December, 1998

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March, 2002

The mists are clearing in my Crystal Ball. The message
is slightly hazy but promising: The Economy is Improving.

That was brought home to me this week when I compared
two messages from the Web manager of a large technical
manufacturing company.

The first one came when I first tried to produce the
E-Metrics Summit in November:

  > The tough thing though about seminars or management
  > sessions right now is that business is extremely weak.
  > Personally, I am on a solid freeze on any kind of
  > travel or spending that does not directly generate
  > revenue. I expect that a lot of people that you
  > would be shooting for are probably in the same boat.
  > It is certainly the hot topic in these days of
  > web naysayers.

Last week, the same guy wrote again:

  > Things are getting back to normal. Count me in.

Sweet.

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February, 2002

According to an article in Computerworld (yes, time to
cut and paste)...
http://www.computerworld.com/itresources/rcstory/0,4167,STO68519_KEY52,00.html

... there are those who would like one, single sign-on
and password that runs across everything, all the time.
Sort of like Microsoft's Passport, but for more than
e-commerce.

The Crystal Ball shows that many will make the effort
and many will fail. In the long run, all of the XML and
the Web services and the .Net-like structures will make
such an effort technically possible, but people won't
support it. They will be convinced that a single
sign-on is the golden key for identity theft.

I don't think they're wrong, I just wish they were.

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December, 2001

The Crystal Ball is pretty clear these days. It shows
a lot less Flash and razzle-dazzle and a lot more basic
salesmanship (salespersonship??).

Rather than focusing on presentation, this year's Web
sites are going to zero in on how the customer buys.
Forget how you go about selling stuff. How does your
customer go about finding, comparing, deciding and
buying what you have for sale?

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November, 2001

It's a dessert topping *and* a floor wax:

   Digital camera
   Digital camcorder
   Video conferencing terminal
   Internet access device
   E-mail terminal
   Internet picture frame
   MP3 player
   Smart phone
      And much more . . .

I want one for Christmas. Phil Gibson - are you listening?
http://www.national.com/news/item/0,1735,702,00.html

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October, 2001

  > Date: 24 Aug 2001 08:31:19 -0700
  > From: "Coach.com"
  > Subject: Your Coach.com information has changed
  > To: JSTERNE@targeting.com
  >
  > Thank you for your continued interest in Coach.com.
  > As you requested, your e-mail address has been
  > successfully changed to: lostdeals@aol.com
  >
  > This message has been sent to your old e-mail
  > address, as well as your new address. If this
  > change is correct, you may disregard both messages.
  >
  > If you have any questions or concerns, please contact
  > us at comments@coach.com.

I immediately contacted them to let them know that somebody
had been messing with their database. I had not requested
the change. Besides, any CRM system worth its salt would
know that I would never allow myself to be referred to as
lostdeals@aol.com.

I have yet hear back from the folks at Coach. The Crystal
Ball is murky on this one, but is it possible that we need
to invest in double opt *out*?

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September, 2001

The Washington Post reported that, "Scientists at the
Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry in Germany have
electronically linked multiple snail neurons onto
transistor chips and demonstrated that the cells
communicate with each other and with the chips:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5195-2001Aug27.html

In the olden days, Andy made faster computers and Bill's
software used them all up. Now, the machines are plenty
fast and the latest versions of Windows are nothing to
e-mail home about. The Crystal Ball sees Bill & Andy at
work again: Developing computers out of snails' brains
so we'll all have to upgrade to Windows Escargot.

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August, 2001

Every now and then I am hit with a Random Act of Therapy.
Last month, this gem came in response to my giving away
a few copies of the third edition of my book, WWW Marketing:

  > From: "Sharon Landers"
  > To:
  > Subject: Re: Full Sterne Ahead - Special Announcement
  > Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 10:54:23 -0500
  >
  > I replied AS SOON AS I received your offer! I even
  > sent in another one inquiring about the status of
  > my reply. Yet, was I a winner? No. The MOMENT I
  > received your email, I replied. How much faster can
  > I get? Then, you give away other copies for being
  > the most original and so on. Had I known that you
  > would respond to flattery and creativity, I would
  > have replied differently. THEN you have the nerve
  > to provide a link to purchase the book to those
  > of us (like me) who did respond immediately but
  > obviously did not warrant a free book for some
  > strange reason of your own! I have no wish to
  > purchase the book, thank you.
  >
  > Don't bother replying. There would be no point in it.

No argument there. I looked back at the domain in Sharon's
e-mail address and thought, Psychiatrist, heal thyself.

Forget road rage, the Crystal Ball says E-Mail Rage has
only just begun.

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June, 2001

By now you've all heard the news and I hope you've had
enough time to recover. Archbishop John Foley, in his
finite wisdom, has ruled out the Internet as a means
of delivering confessions and seeking absolution.
http://www.cwnews.com/news/viewrec.cfm?RefNum=15669

As soon as his speech was finished, my Crystal Ball
sprang to life with one word:

      Absolvster

Every computer on the Web would have a small text file
filled with contrition activities (say one Our Father
and five Hail Marys). Everybody online could send a
double-encrypted confession out into Webspace and whichever
Absolvster participant was closest, or most in need of
doling out forgiveness (see Marketing Marvels, below)
would respond with the appropriate penance.

We knew the Pope and Madonna had something in common,
but the Crystal Ball reveals His Holiness teaming up
with Metallica and Dr. Dre. Is it time for some Windex?

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May, 2001

For years I've been poking fun at marketing types not
understanding just how hard it might be to have your
message delivered at breakfast via Internet enabled
toasters which would burn your logo/slogan onto the
morning's meal.

Seems reality caught up with me yet again:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1264000/1264205.stm

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March, 2001

Enough worry-warts have asked me what I think of the
future of online marketing in the face of dot coms
going bust and the stock market tanking. I figured
it was time to get the following it off my chest:

The reason so many Internet companies are going out of
business at the same time is that so many of them
*started* business at the same time.

When the Internet rush started and the venture capitalists
were throwing money at anything with an "@" or a ".com"
in its business plan, thousands of companies were formed.
Not all of them can be expected to be successful.

While the money was flowing, companies earning a living
selling advertising (portals, magazines, radio stations)
were raking in that money, or trading inflated
advertising space for inflated stocks and options.

As soon as the start-ups started stopping, the money
wasn't there anymore. Companies like Disney, Bertelsmann,
and Doubleclick aren't earning as much as projected.
So they have to lay off people.

The value of Internet advertising has not gone away,
just the amount of money being spent on it at the moment
has slowed.

Is there no pure-play, dot com business model that makes
sense? Not when it is founded on numbers that were unreal
to begin with. Is this the end of Internet marketing as
we know it?

The Crystal Ball says the Internet is a great tool for
lowering the cost and increasing the speed of communication.
How can that be bad? There are still plenty of companies
selling tulips at a profit.

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February, 2001

  > From: team121@121agency.com
  > Date: Wed, 22 Nov 2000 13:24:06
  > To: unsubscribe@targeting.com
  > Subject: 1 to 1 Marketing Resource
  >
  > If your company is interested in practical application
  > of one-to-one marketing, then look
  > to The 1:1 Agency -- located in the New York City area.
  >
  > www.121agency.com
  >
  > We specialize in customer relationship management,
  > e-mail
  > marketing and on-demand
  > video for companies willing to embrace the new
  > interactive
  > technology.
  >
  > SPECIAL OFFER:
  > For the month of December 2000, we will send your
  > personalized
  > e-mail from your customer
  > and prospect e-mail lists at the rate of $5 per thousand
  > for lists over 100,000
  > names (text based e-mail) from our dedicated e-mail
  > server.  
  > Lists must have salutation, first
  > name last name, and e-mail address in a comma delimited
  > format.
  > Privacy guaranteed.

Looking into my cloudy crystal ball, I foresee a time
when companies like the one above will be keel-hauled for,
oh - take your pick:

a) Bad e-mail formatting. Haven't they heard of narrow
   columns?
b) Claiming to offer services they can't do for themselves.
   Who'd want to go to a dentist with bad teeth?
c) Spamming - of course.
d) Offering privacy as a cloaked way of saying they're
   spammer-friendly. "We won't tell anybody it was you -
   as long as your check clears..."
e) Ripping off a Peppers and Rogers (www.1to1.com) trade
   mark. Is there an attorney in the house?
f) Having the nerve to send a spam to my "unsubscribe"
   address. I wonder if "bonehead" translates into other
   languages?

Yes, keel-hauling is *definitely* too good for these
cretins.

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November, 2000

Do you think the US Presidential Election constitutes
the Lawyers Full Employment Act? Just wait until people
start registering familiar domain names using .info, .biz,
.name, .museum, .aero, .museum, and .coop.

On your mark... Get set... Litigate!!

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September, 2000

We'd all like to say goodbye to passwords: more than eight
characters, must include a number and a punctuation mark
and must, above all, be completely unmemorable. It's enough
to drive one to drink.

That's what Passlogix figured anyway. Their system makes you
the online bartender at this interactive bar. Your password
lies behind how you mix your favorite beverage. Cute? You bet.
Useful? Mmmmmaybe...  We'll have to let this Cabernet breathe
a bit. www.passlogix.com

I'm still waiting for BitBoost Systems to turn their attention
from cats to humans. "When cats walk or climb on your keyboard,
they can enter random commands and data... PawSense is a software utility that ... quickly detects and blocks cat typing.
www.bitboost.com/pawsense/index.tml

For $179, the Identix BioTouch PC Card Fingerprint Reader
www.identix.com/itsecurity/products/BioTouch.html may be just a
little too pricey, but one way or another, look for passwords to
become as common as buggy whips before too many more trips
around the sun.

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August, 2000

I see dead people.

OK - not really dead *people* so much as cyber-beings who were never alive to start with.

Ananova www.ananova.com
Webbie Tookay www.illusion2k.com
Chase Walker www.flashcommerce.com/articles/00/05/03/225718590.htm

Who are these 'people'? They are the stars of tomorrow. The
entertainment stars? Well, sure - we proved that in 1928 when
Mickey Mouse first appeared as Steamboat Willie. But more
important: the industrial/customer relations stars.

I would give me eye teeth to be able to 'talk' to the phone
company through an animated individual who had infinite
patience, was available 24x7x365, had immediate knowledge of
all my phone lines and transactions and needs. It could even
make collaboratively filtered suggestions. Sign me up.

But let's not lose our sense of perspective:
www.satirewire.com/features/satire-jeevesinterview.html

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June, 2000

June's Crystal Ball reveals that spam will never end, but that
savvy marketers will, indeed, reap the rewards of hard work.

After extolling the virtues of an opt-in-only e-mail newsletter
policy at a recent seminar, one gentleman e-mailed me to explain
that *his* customers were *different*:

  > If this notion of 'permission marketing' takes it's natural
  > course and our other direct marketing tools (such as US mail)
  > become constrained, we wind up backing ourselves into a box
  > canyon that is nearly impossible to get back out of.  I can
  > see the people who we need to communicate with the most
  > pressing the button that says, 'don't mail, email or phone me'.

I replied:

  Right!

  > Then, we're out of the sales and marketing business and
  > into the store front business where we hope people will
  > call us or look at our web/print advertising and maybe
  > buy from us someday - a true kiss of death in our business.

  Wrong!

  > I truly believe that if companies put the 'shotgun' (a.k.a.
  > 'spam') away and invested in database tools to help them
  > truly understand the customers, we'd be 'shooting with a
  > rifle' and could better regulate the value of our com-
  > munications thus delighting customers who would say 'look,
  > an email just for me about solutions for my problems'.

  Shooting with a rifle is still shooting. Spam is in
  the eye of the beholder. You may be smart enough to
  figure our how to send me a message that I care about
  but you'd be a rare bird, indeed.

  > I think much of our concern comes from our own insecurity
  > in our ability to communicate usefully in a one-to-one
  > fashion so, instead of us regulating the communications,
  > we turn the keys of regulation over to our customers who
  > haven't seen much relationship marketing in the past and
  > will often say 'count me out'.

  People will (and do) opt in if they see there is value
  in the anticipated communication. I'm asking you and
  all marketers to admit that our messages haven't been
  as valuable as they might.

  When customers start seeing real, live value from the
  newsletters, notices, tips, tricks, and traps that
  we sent out, they will be happier to subscribe. Those
  who are better value givers will garner more market.
  Just because it's hard doesn't mean it's wrong. It's
  just hard.

  Do it well and reap the rewards of happy, loyal customers.

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May, 2000

On March 21, Wired News reported that Bell Labs have moved
data over fiber-optic cable at 3.28 terabits per second. "At
this rate, Lucent's fiber in one second could transmit three
times the volume of daily Internet traffic for the whole world."

So - is broadband coming? Real broadband where video-phones
will become as common as San Jose traffic jams? Oh, yes. Is
it coming soon? The answer is not clear at this time. And if
you shake that Mystic 8 Ball again, it'll say: "Try again later."

But The Crystal Ball says: "Start thinking about how you're
going to use it for business." Yes, the Big Boys will turn TV
interactive and customer service reps all over the world will
have to invest in new wardrobes, but what happens to Web
content for the typical company?

With digital video becoming the norm, the marketer's task of
creating brochures and direct mail pieces and Web sites will
expand to include short product infomercials for quick viewing.
Product managers will be showing off their skills at documenting
how to install toner cartridges.

Film technique classes anybody?

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April, 2000

In his white paper, PQ: The Personalization Quotient of a
Website, Kamran Parsaye, offers up "a framework and a theory
to measure how personalized a system is in terms of the
Personalization Quotient (PQ) and illustrate how the theory
can be used to improve e-service."

To translate for those of us who do not speak PHD-eese, Kamran
came up with a formula to measure just how personalized any
particular Web site really is. He differentiates between
customization, individualization, and group-characterization.

      Customization is where you tell the site the stocks you
      want to track, the type of news you want to see, the
      colors you want set on your screen, etc.
  
      Individualization goes beyond this fixed setting and uses
      patterns of your own behavior (and not any other user's)
      to deliver specific content to you. E.g. if you have
      clicked a lot on finance related items but not on sports,
      it will show you more financial news rather than sports
      news, without your asking for it.
  
      In group-characterization you receive a recommendation
      based the preferences of people "like" you, e.g. books
      may be recommended to you based on books ordered by
      people with similar interests. Approaches based on
      collaborative filtering, case-based reasoning, etc.
      focus on the group- characterization measure.

Then he wanders off into world where only mathematicians dare
to tread and uses terms that cannot be repeated in a family
newsletter, much less be reproduced in ASCII. But you can take
a look at the whole thing at: www.novuweb.com/pqwebsite.htm
or where I first found it at:
http://www.personalization.com/soapbox/contributions/parsaye.asp
And what's in the Crystal Ball? Glad you asked.

Everybody is used to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
They help you measure the bottom line. But where are the
Generally Accepted Web Success Metrics? The Crystal Ball
suggests that new ways to measure what you're doing online
beyond hits and clickthroughs is going to be critical.

Dot-com company valuations, internal funding for new Web
initiatives, and Web ROI in general, will all be hinged on the
ability to hold a mirror up to nature and say, "Lo!" or even
"Foresooth! Thy Website hath a ponderous Personalization
Quotient and a fantastical Click-to-Close Ratio, Horatio!"

Where will such yardsticks come from? Watch this space.

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December, 1999

Remember those Finnish vending machines you activate with
your sell phone and get charged on your phone bill? Just
wait - there's more. And it's validation for reading
www.chinwag.com/uk-netmarketing

From: "philip gusterson"
To: uk-netmarketing@mail.chinwag.com
Subject: UKNM: Internet Marketing
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 1999 02:22:36 PST

> I work for a PR agency out here in Japan. One of my clients
> is an Internet Marketing/Advertising company. They are
> pioneering a number of techniques which I believe are
> unique to Japan. We have 2-3 million mobile phone users
> connected to the Internet via their handsets in Japan. My
> client is designing marketing strategies and proprietary
> software to reach them.
>
> For example, when you walk past Starbucks you would get an
> email to your phone offering you a free coffee if you pop in.
> There are many more "point of space" and "point of time"
> marketing techniques being pioneered in Japan right now.
> Basically I think people in the UK would be very interested to
> read about what is happening in Japan since in the area of
> mobile communications marketing Japan is leading the way. Can
> anyone recommend appropriate publications for me to pitch the
> story to? Or am I just out of touch and this is happening in
> the UK too? I'd be really grateful for any input.
>
> Many thanks,
>
> Philip Gusterson
> philipgusterson@hotmail.com
> www.gusterson.co.uk

Journalists: start your engines.
Telcos: is the US forever doomed to a lack of wireless toys?

(A tip of the hat to Steven Carlton, moderator of Online Europe
for coining "Opportunity Marketing" last week. To subscribe to
Online Europe, send a message to europe-on@isys.hu)

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November, 1999

Two images in the old crystal ball this time around.

The first shows Mark Gibbs buying dinner for me *and*
my wife after abusing my good name in public in his
Network World "Back Spin" column on branding
www.nwfusion.com/archive/1999b/1025gibbs.html
which began:

   Nothin' But 'Net and Image

   By Mark Gibbs  Network World, 10/25/99

   "I predict that by 2003 the major unit of international
   currency will be the Yahoo!" - Jim Sterne, author, speaker
   and pundit who owes me lunch.

The second image is of a small boy in the not too distant
future looking up at his teacher in an attempt to explain
his lack of homework. Seeing as how he doesn't have a dog,
the choices are:

I e-mailed it to you but it bounced
My laptop was stolen
My paper was hacked
My private crypto key has been compromised
I created a Web site instead of a paper but my ISP's
   server crashed
My little brother put my laptop next to a magnet
NDA's prevent me from further comment
We're in our quiet period right now
You can't read HTML mail? Sorry, I'll re-send
You got a corrupted message? How odd!
Three letters: G, P, F

I owe the big finish (the last three) to the afore mentioned
Mr. Gibbs.  Mark - we'll bring the wine and the cigars.

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October, 1999

Profile Sharing

Wouldn't it be interesting to share customer profiles
with other companies in order to better cater to them
on a one-to-one basis? Before Jason Catlett from
www.junkbusters.com climbs all over me, let me hasten
to add: on an opt-in basis.

We know some things about customers and our coop partners
know some things about them. If we pool our resources...

Yes, there are e-wallets coming out of the woodwork,
but I'm talking about real, in-depth kind of information.
The kind that would allow Circuit City to recommend a new
DVD player because it would go so well with the new HDTV
I bought at Shopping.com.

Image an competitive landscape where data cartels roam
the earth. It would make sense for big players in the
computer industry, for example to form close ties with
big partners.

It's not hard to picture the databases of non-competitive
corporations getting chummy. The result might be:

The Big Three Data Conglomerates:

                Data Conglom 1   Data Conglom 2   Data Conglom 3
Software:            Oracle             Siebel                 Microsoft
Hardware:           Sun                  IBM                   Intel
Network Gear:    Cisco              Nortel                3Com
Telco:                  AT&T             Sprint                 MCI

Start looking around to see whom you might like as your
data partner. Is it Big Brother? Or is it one who can
help you serve your customer better? Your customer will
decide.

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June, 1999

Answerbots: They're coming. They're going to answer my every
question at all times of the day or night.

Neuromedia (www.neuromedia.com) has a "Virtual
Representative" named Red. Red will tell you all about buying
and building your own Virtual Representative. Big Science
(www.bigscience.com) has a Klone named Andrette that's
more than just an answerbot. She's a pretty face as well.

It was time to put these bit-puppies to the test:

What time is it in Brazil?

   Red:
   The correct time and date here in San Francisco is now: 15:08.

   Andrette (along with a slightly puzzled look on her face):
   It's 6:27PM EDT in Atlanta, GA. I don't know the time in
   Brazil.

The winner: Andrette! Not only did she exhibit verbal *and*
facial concern over her lack of South American temporal knowledge, she was more accurate by 19 minutes.

Look for more and more Frequently Asked Questions to be answered by bots. Then watch for them on interactive TV:

Don Tapscott in CIO magazine says:

   Simon Templer drives a Volvo in the movie The Saint; I stop
   the action and say, "Cool car! What's that?" He says, "It's
   a Volvo." He says, "What's important to you?"

   I say, "Performance."

   He says, "Good! Volvo is the performance car! Here's how
   a Volvo does against a BMW. And you live in Denver; that's
   even more important because of the oxygen level in the air."
  
   Knowledge infuses itself through everything. The only
   meaningful form of capital becomes intellectual capital.
   The gap between consumers and producers blurs and we have
   the notion of presumption: Things are custom built for me
   on the Net.

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May, 1999

I'm currently hosting a study group on the PlanetIT Web site
www.planetit.com and a question came up about designing
your site to cater to the bandwidth of your audience.

Having just been exposed to the inimitable Jack Powers, chief
speaker-selector at Internet World and producer of the Internet
Appliance Database (which should be up soon) (www.in3.org),
I couldn't help but ponder the Web page formatting dilemma
we'll all be facing soon. I wrote:

   We also have to look out for the various ways people are going
   to view our sites. It's not just Mac or PC anymore. It's not
   just three versions of Netscape and Internet Explorer. Soon,
   more people will be surfing our sites from:

   television sets
   www.webtv.com

   desk telephones  
   www.hightech-store.com/unidenp200.html

   mobile phones  
   www.nokia.com/phones/9110/index.html

   pagers  
   www.PlanetWeb.com/products/consumer/index.html

   and, yes, even refrigerators.
   www.electrolux.com/screenfridge

Hold onto your hats, kids, we're going for a ride!
Make sure your seatbelt is low and tight across your
lap and your pages are truly cross-platform.

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March, 1999

Some kind soul on the UK marketing list (sorry, I didn't
keep the post - e-mail me and I'll send you a copy of
my latest book) described what happens when mobile phone
use becomes ubiquitous. In Finland, some vending machines
and automated car washes have no coin slots - they have
telephone numbers. Dial the number from your cell phone
(or your mobile as they say in the UK, or your handy as
the call it in Germany), make your selection and the charge
shows up on your phone bill.

You have now seen the future.

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January, 1999

The world will belong to those who exploit aggregated
data.

A recent article in ComputerWorld www.computerworld.com/ described MovieFone this way: "In 1997, MovieFone started to construct a data warehouse so that it could follow the historical calling patterns of people who phoned it to its free movie listing service.... Data from MovieFone and its sister Web site MovieLink (www.movielink.com) could help them quickly advise theater owners on how many screens a blockbuster movie should play on..."

What sort of information are you or could you be
collecting that could be of use to others? To yourself?
Start buying bigger disk drives today.

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December, 1998

At the beginning of this month, Mike Butcher, editor of New
Media Age magazine (in the UK, on paper), asked the United
Kingdom New Media List (www.chinwag.com),
"So, is anyone going to make some predictions for '99 - or
are we going to wait for Bill Gates to do that...?"

Tim Hayward, a self-described Digital Media Strategist and
a frequent poster to UKNM responded:

   This is New Media. Most of us make unsubstantiated voodoo
   guesswork for a living.

   If I predicted that there would be a February next year
   it would take most people until September to believe me,
   until October to act on it and until the following June
   to pay for the information.

   For what it's worth, the only prediction I'm currently
   giving my clients for the premillennial year runs something
   like...

   "There shall come a BEAST with the heads of nine ravening
   DOGS and a smaller dog who is nicer and UPON its back shall
   RIDE a GREAT WHORE, with twelve HAIRY breasts and a
   warm scarf. AND the HEAVENS will be rent. AND a plague
   of BOILS and a sort of rash that isn't quite spots but might be
   fungal and REALLY itches will be ABROAD in the land..."

   etc etc ad nauseam.

I'm inclined to agree.

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